The biggest development since my last set of Oscar predictions is the successful release of David Fincher‘s The Social Network. It made an impressive statement at the box-office by winning two straight weekends, while also earning unanimous approval from critics. I already had the film and Fincher topping their respective categories, so the major moves being made on my board are by the actors. Jesse Eisenberg‘s meticulous portrayal puts him in the thick of the Best Actor race, and co-stars Andrew Garfield and Justin Timberlake have cemented themselves as formidable contenders in the Best Supporting Actor category.

I have personally had the pleasure of seeing both Darren Aronofsky‘s Black Swan and Danny Boyle‘s 127 Hours this week. Neither film is inherently Oscar-friendly by any means, but I still think they will both end up with Best Picture nods. Natalie Portman and James Franco are heavy favorites in their respective lead categories, though I suspect Boyle‘s film will make more of an impact in the other categories.

Elsewhere, the very quiet release of Randall Wallace‘s Secretariat should put the film off the awards map for the time being. I never really pegged Wallace’s film as having much of a chance of following in the feel-good footsteps of The Blind Side. The modest commercial numbers – $27 million to date versus The Blind Side‘s $309 million – could be the final nail in the coffin.

I also responded quite favorably to Tony Goldwyn‘s Conviction, although I’m not sure the critical buzz has been strong enough to give the film any more plays outside of Sam Rockwell‘s safe position in the Best Supporting Actor category. I can’t see Hilary Swank‘s performance gaining much recognition, even if it is a perfectly fine piece of work.

As always, my full list of projections can be found below. Click here if you need to glance over my previous update.

BEST PICTURE

  1. The Social Network
  2. The King’s Speech
  3. Toy Story 3
  4. 127 Hours
  5. True Grit
  6. The Kids Are All Right
  7. Another Year
  8. The Fighter
  9. Love and Other Drugs
  10. Black Swan

Other Contenders: Blue Valentine, The Company Men, Fair Game, Hereafter, Inception, Made in Dagenham, Somewhere, The Town, The Way Back

BEST DIRECTOR

  1. David Fincher (The Social Network)
  2. Danny Boyle (127 Hours)
  3. Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
  4. Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (True Grit)
  5. David O. Russell (The Fighter)

Other Contenders: Mike Leigh (Another Year), Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), Clint Eastwood (Hereafter), Christopher Nolan (Inception), Lisa Cholodenko (The Kids Are All Right), Edward Zwick (Love and Other Things), Sofia Coppola (Somewhere), Lee Unkrich (Toy Story 3), Peter Weir (The Way Back)

BEST ACTOR

  1. Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
  2. James Franco (127 Hours)
  3. Robert Duvall (Get Low)
  4. Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
  5. Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)

Other Contenders: Paul Giamatti (Barney’s Version), Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine), Jake Gyllenhaal (Love and Other Drugs), Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter), Stephen Dorff (Somewhere)

BEST ACTRESS

  1. Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
  2. Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
  3. Lesley Manville (Another Year)
  4. Anne Hathaway (Love and Other Drugs)
  5. Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)

Other Contenders: Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine), Naomi Watts (Fair Game), Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right), Sally Hawkins (Made in Dagenham), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  1. Christian Bale (The Fighter)
  2. Sam Rockwell (Conviction)
  3. Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
  4. Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
  5. Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)

Other Contenders: Vincent Cassel (Black Swan), Chris Cooper (The Company Men), Bill Murray (Get Low), Justin Timberlake (The Social Network), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Josh Brolin (True Grit), Matt Damon (True Grit)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  1. Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
  2. Miranda Richardson (Made in Dagenham)
  3. Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
  4. Elle Fanning (Somewhere)
  5. Bryce Dallas Howard (Hereafter)

Other Contenders: Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom), Barbara Hershey (Black Swan), Mila Kunis (Black Swan), Amy Adams (The Fighter), Kristin Scott Thomas (Nowhere Boy), Dianne Wiest (Rabbit Hole), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  1. The King’s Speech (David Speidler)
  2. The Kids Are All Right (Stuart Blumberg, Lisa Cholodenko)
  3. Another Year (Mike Leigh)
  4. Inception (Christopher Nolan)
  5. The Fighter (Paul Attanasio, Lewis Colich, Eric Johnson, Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy)

Other Contenders: Black Swan (Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz, John J. McLaughlin), Blue Valentine (Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curtis, Cami Delavigne), The Company Men (John Wells), Hereafter (Peter Morgan), The King’s Speech (David Speidler), Made in Dagenham (Billy Ivory) Somewhere (Sofia Coppola)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  1. The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin)
  2. Toy Story 3 (Michael Arndt)
  3. 127 Hours (Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy)
  4. True Grit (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
  5. Love and Other Drugs (Marshall Herskovitz, Charles Randolph, Edward Zwick)

Other Contenders: Fair Game (Jez Butterworth, John Butterworth), How to Train Your Dragon (William Davies, Dean DeBlois, Chris Sanders), Rabbit Hole (David Lidsay-Abaire), The Way Back (Peter Weir), Winter’s Bone (Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, Daniel Woodrell)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

  1. 127 Hours (Enrique Chediak, Anthony Dod Mantle)
  2. True Grit (Roger Deakins)
  3. Inception (Wally Pfister)
  4. The Fighter (Hoyte Van Hoytema)
  5. The Way Back (Russell Boyd)

Other Contenders: Black Swan (Matthew Libatique), Get Low (David Boyd), Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I (Eduardo Serra), The King’s Speech (Danny Cohen), Never Let Me Go (Adam Kimmel), Shutter Island (Robert Richardson), The Social Network (Jeff Cronenweth)

What are your predictions?

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